In the upcoming assembly election, Vidarbha, encompassing 62 seats across 11 districts, is a focal point and expected to have a significant impact on government formation. The region is fiercely contested between the Mahayuti and the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The BJP emerged as the dominant force in 2019 in Vidarbha, securing 29 seats, followed by Congress with 15 seats, undivided NCP with six seats, and unified Shiv Sena with four seats. Smaller parties and independents, such as Prahar Janshakti, also won five seats. With the split in NCP and Shiv Sena and the emergence of independents, Vidarbha is poised to be a crucial battleground this time around.
East Vidarbha, consisting of six districts - Nagpur, Wardha, Gadchiroli, Chandrapur, Gondia, and Bhandara, has traditionally been a stronghold of the BJP. However, internal conflicts and the growing strength of the MVA present a challenge to the Mahayuti's dominance, with significant battles expected involving BJP and Congress heavyweights. Nagpur, with its 12 politically significant seats, is set for high-stakes contests. BJP, which won 11 seats in 2014 but saw a decrease to six in 2019, will face stiff competition from Congress aiming to capitalize on anti-incumbency sentiments in South and Central constituencies in Nagpur city. Congress is also targeting the Nagpur North and West seats won by BJP in 2019.
In rural Nagpur, Congress is emphasizing farmer distress and local developmental issues, areas that proved detrimental to BJP in the previous election. The BJP is relying on the popularity of its local leaders and organizational strength to maintain its foothold in the region.
Wardha is another district where battle lines are drawn, with BJP poised for tough competition from Congress in its assembly constituency. Deoli is expected to witness a BJP vs Congress or Shiv Sena (UBT) contest, while in Hinganghat, BJP is preparing to defend its seat against NCP (Sharad Pawar). The electoral contest in Arvi remains undecided.Certain political dynamics are unfolding as both alliances contemplate their options for candidates. In Gadchiroli, an area of political sensitivity due to internal conflicts, the BJP is facing significant challenges. BJP MLA Dr. Deorao Holi has hinted at increasing dissent within the party. The Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) is making a strong push to unseat the BJP, particularly in the Aheri constituency where NCP's Bhagyashree Atram is contesting against her father, Dharamrao Baba Atram of NCP (Ajit). A closely contested Congress-BJP battle is anticipated in Armori.
In Chandrapur, an industrial hub and traditional BJP stronghold, a fierce competition is expected in its six constituencies. Both Shiv Sena and BJP are courting independent MLA Kishor Jorgewar in the Chandrapur constituency. BJP leader Sudhir Mungantiwar, facing tough opposition in his hometown of Ballarpur after a challenging Lok Sabha election, is one to watch. The Congress's Vijay Wadettiwar is eyeing a third consecutive term in Bramhapuri. With the Warora seat vacant following the Congress MLA's win in the Lok Sabha election, potential successors are emerging, such as Wadettiwar's daughter Shivani. Meanwhile, in Rajura, Congress MLA Subhash Dhote might face a strong challenge from the BJP.
In Gondia, strategies are being finalized as political players position themselves for the upcoming elections. Independent MLA Vinod Agrawal, now aligned with BJP, is being contested by Congress's Gopaldas Agrawal in Gondia. The Tiroda constituency will witness a battle between BJP's Vijay Rahangdale and NCP's Ravikant Bopche. The political landscape in Arjuni Moragaon remains uncertain, awaiting NCP's candidate announcement. Congress's Sasharam Korote in Amgaon is gearing up for a tough fight against an as-yet-unnamed BJP contender.
In Bhandara, conflict within alliances is evident in all three constituencies reserved for Scheduled Castes. Independent MLA Narendra Bhondekar, an ally of the Shinde faction, is facing opposition within the BJP regarding his nomination. In Tumsar, NCP's Raju Karemore is set to compete against his rival, former MLA Charan Waghmare, now associated with a different party.Member of Parliament Sharad Pawar's seat is being eyed by the Congress as well, adding to the intrigue. Sakoli, currently held by MPCC president Nana Patole, is expected to witness a tight contest as multiple BJP candidates compete for the ticket. In Western Vidarbha, which encompasses districts like Amravati, Yavatmal, Akola, Washim, and Buldhana, there is a dilemma over seat-sharing within the MVA alliance. While this region has traditionally been a stronghold for the MVA, the BJP has made inroads in the last two elections. However, internal disagreements over seat allocations among the Congress, NCP (SP), and Shiv Sena (UBT) are complicating their election strategies.
Amravati is a hub of political activity with intense electoral battles expected, particularly in the main district seat. Congress and NCP (led by Ajit Pawar) are competing for dominance, while smaller parties like MNS could further complicate the scenario. In Badnera, BJP ally Ravi Rana of the Yuva Swabhiman Party is set to face either Shiv Sena (UBT) or the NCP. Congress' Yashomati Thakur is aiming for her fourth consecutive victory in Teosa, while other constituencies like Dhamangaon Railway and Morshi are poised for fierce battles between BJP, Congress, and NCP.
Yavatmal is witnessing a struggle for the Congress to maintain its influence as the BJP has made significant gains in this traditionally Congress-dominated district. With five out of seven seats now under BJP control, Congress is striving to regain lost ground, especially in Pusad and Digras. Ongoing seat-sharing negotiations within the MVA alliance are adding uncertainty to the electoral prospects in Yavatmal.
Akola is gearing up for a quadrangular contest as Mahayuti, MVA, VBA, and Prahar Janshakti are expected to field strong candidates in the district. Akot and Murtizapur, both reserved for Scheduled Castes, will witness tough battles as the BJP seeks to maintain its dominance. In Akola West, the BJP is facing the challenge of selecting candidates following the passing of its veteran leader Govardhandas Sharma, while in the East, retaining MLA Randhir Sawarkar is a possibility.
Washim is poised for a triangular battle in Karanja and Risod constituencies, where a mix of parties will compete for victory.A triangular contest is expected to unfold among Mahayuti, MVA, and VBA in the upcoming elections. The BJP is likely to nominate Lakhan Malik in Washim again, but a new candidate will be selected for Karanja following the passing of sitting MLA Rajendra Patni. The Congress's Amit Zanak is seeking re-election for a fourth term in Risod. In Buldhana, there will be a showdown between Sena (UBT) and Sena (Shinde) in various constituencies, shaking up the traditional battleground that has typically belonged to the undivided Shiv Sena. Uddhav's Shiv Sena is aiming for victory in Buldhana and Mehkar, while the Congress is focusing on Malkapur, Chikhli, Jalgaon Jamod, and Khamgaon. The NCP (Sharad Pawar) may nominate Rajendra Shingane in Sindkhed Raja, but tensions within the MVA alliance could complicate this contest.